Well well well, two U. of Colorado fellows say Romney wins handily in November. Smart guys!
Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes. The political scientists discuss their findings here.
Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida…
But the polls?
Bickers said much of the polling thus far means relatively little, with much of the electorate still not focused on the race. [He and Berry] said their model focuses on the preeminent issue of the economy. Applied retrospectively, the model [picks] the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.
NBC’s Chuck-You Todd (R. Limbaugh’s name for him) says the economy’s being underplayed — not by media but by the candidates. To which Laura Ingraham: What about the major media “obsessing” over the Mo. senatorial candidate and his “legitimate rape”:
Todd: Well, this is a chicken and egg conversation. This is a distraction. I don’t think it’s a distraction you can quote, blame on the media . . . It’s not media bias, . . . it’s what they’re covering, and the fact is we are under-covering the economy, . . . but you cover the campaign that is in front of you.
They cover what’s there. It’s the game they play. Lemmings don’t go off on their own. It never enters their minds. That’s our major media. It’s their nature.